:Product: 19961223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Dec 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 358 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 DEC 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8008 (S04W10)
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SMALL SUBFLARES. NONE OF THEM WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH SIGNIFICANT X-RAY OUTPUT. A SMALL FILAMENT ERUPTED NEAR
(S14W67) BEGINNING AT 23/2016Z. THIS DSF WAS LOCATED NEAR REGION
8005 (S13W67) AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A B2/SF FLARE WHICH PEAKED AT
23/2053Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE 23/0000-0300Z
PERIOD. THE FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET SINCE ABOUT 23/0900Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT DAY, BECOMING MOSTLY
QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 DEC-26 DEC
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 DEC 080
PREDICTED   24 DEC-26 DEC  076/074/070
90 DAY MEAN        23 DEC 075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 DEC  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 DEC  010/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 DEC-26 DEC  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 DEC-26 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/05/05
MINOR STORM           05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01