:Product: 19961224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Dec 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 359 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 DEC 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW BY VIRTUE OF AN UNCORRELATED
C2.1 X-RAY EVENT THAT OCCURED AT 24/1311Z, WHICH HAD AN ASSOCIATED
TYPE II 800 KM/S RADIO EMISSION.  THE C-CLASS EVENT WAS PROCEEDED BY
AN UNCORRELATED B6.4 X-RAY EVENT AT 24/1121Z.  OTHER THAN THESE
EVENTS, ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET, WITH THE VISIBLE DISK
CURRENTLY VOID OF ACTIVE REGIONS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS AT ALL LATITUDES FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 DEC-27 DEC
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 DEC 079
PREDICTED   25 DEC-27 DEC  074/072/070
90 DAY MEAN        24 DEC 075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 DEC  009/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 DEC  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 DEC-27 DEC  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 DEC-27 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01