:Product: 19970104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jan 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 4 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 JAN 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. MIDWAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, A REGION BEGAN TO EMERGE AT A MODERATE PACE NEAR S02W04 AND
WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8009.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A VERY
LOW LEVEL.  CONTINUED GROWTH IN NEW REGION 8009 COULD RAISE ACTIVITY
LEVELS IN 1-2 DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 JAN-07 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 JAN 074
PREDICTED   05 JAN-07 JAN  076/078/080
90 DAY MEAN        04 JAN 076
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JAN  003/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JAN  004/003
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JAN-07 JAN  008/008-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 JAN-07 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01