:Product: 19970105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jan 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 5 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 JAN 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. A LONG DURATION, LOW
INTENSITY (A6) X-RAY EVENT WAS OBSERVED BY GOES-9 FROM 1331-1610 UT.
THERE WERE NO IMAGE OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE TO PINPOINT THE SOURCE OF
THIS EVENT. REGION 8009 (S03W18) IS A SMALL AND VERY STABLE BXO
GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH A
POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS. AN INCREASE FROM TODAY'S
QUIET LEVELS IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF RECURRENCE EFFECTS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 JAN-08 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 JAN 074
PREDICTED   06 JAN-08 JAN  074/075/076
90 DAY MEAN        05 JAN 076
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JAN  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JAN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JAN-08 JAN  010/012-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 JAN-08 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01