:Product: 19970106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 6 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 JAN 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A NINE DEGREE FILAMENT
NEAR S20E10 DISAPPEARED SOMETIME BETWEEN 05/1939 UT AND 06/2300 UT.
AN ADDITIONAL FILAMENT ERUPTION OF 13 DEGREES NEAR S23W03 WAS
REPORTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 1301-1453 UT TODAY. REGION 8009 (S04W32),
THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE DISK, WAS VERY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR BRIEF ACTIVE PERIODS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF RECURRENCE
PATTERNS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 JAN-09 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 JAN 073
PREDICTED   07 JAN-09 JAN  075/075/075
90 DAY MEAN        06 JAN 076
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JAN  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JAN  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JAN-09 JAN  010/010-010/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 JAN-09 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01