:Product: 19970107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jan 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 7 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 JAN 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. TODAY'S ONLY ACTIVITY WAS
AN A7/SF FLARE FROM REGION 8009 (S05W44) AT 0840 UT. THIS REGION IS
GRADUALLY DECAYING. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK WAS QUIET AND
STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. AN INITIALLY QUIET
FIELD BECAME UNSETTLED AROUND 0900Z. ACTIVITY LEVELS VARIED FROM
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TOMORROW, AND SHOULD DECLINE TO
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 JAN-10 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 JAN 073
PREDICTED   08 JAN-10 JAN  075/075/075
90 DAY MEAN        07 JAN 076
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 JAN  004/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JAN  011/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JAN-10 JAN  010/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 JAN-10 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/05/05
MINOR STORM           05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/05/05
MINOR STORM           10/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01