:Product: 19970110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jan 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 010 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 JAN 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. STORM
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT MANY STATIONS FROM 10/0600-1200Z. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS IN RESPONSE TO SOLAR WIND CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
SOUTHWARD IMF OVER A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. SOLAR WIND DATA FROM A
VARIETY OF SOURCES SUGGEST THE PASSAGE OF A MAGNETIC PLASMA CLOUD
WHICH FIRST ENCOUNTERED THE EARTH AT 10/0100Z. THIS CLOUD MAY BE
RELATED TO A LARGE CME OBSERVED BY THE SOHO SPACECRAFT ON 6 JANUARY.
WIND SPACECRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS STRUCTURE COMPLETED ITS PASS
BY THE EARTH BY ABOUT 10/1800Z. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET
TO UNSETTLED SINCE ABOUT 10/1500Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX INCREASED FROM NORMAL TO HIGH LEVELS AT 10/1640Z AND HAS
REMAINED THERE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 JAN-13 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 JAN 075
PREDICTED   11 JAN-13 JAN  076/076/076
90 DAY MEAN        10 JAN 076
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 JAN  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JAN  018/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JAN-13 JAN  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 JAN-13 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01