:Product: 19970117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jan 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 017 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 JAN 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOALR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY NOTED. REGION 8011 (S06W04) IS THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON
THE VISIBLE DISK. IT IS A SIMPLE AXX SPOT GROUP AND SLOWLY DECAYING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE VISIBLE DISK REMAINS QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH
LEVELS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 JAN-20 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 JAN 074
PREDICTED   18 JAN-20 JAN  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        17 JAN 076
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JAN  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JAN  002/003
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JAN-20 JAN  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 JAN-20 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01