:Product: 19970118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jan 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 018 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 JAN 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8011 (S06W17) IS A
STABLE AND QUIET SINGLE AXX SPOT. NEW REGIONS 8012 (N27E11) AND 8013
(S32E64) WERE NUMBERED TODAY. BOTH ARE SMALL, QUIET AND APPEAR
STABLE SO FAR.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED ABOUT 18/0300Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 JAN-21 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 JAN 075
PREDICTED   19 JAN-21 JAN  076/076/076
90 DAY MEAN        18 JAN 076
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JAN  002/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JAN  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JAN-21 JAN  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 JAN-21 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01