:Product: 19970126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jan 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 026 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 JAN 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8014 (S12E32) IS
THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE DISK AND WAS VERY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
UNTIL ABOUT 12Z WHEN THE FIELD ATTAINED UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS
WITH SOME MINOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. SOLAR WIND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED AN INITIAL INTERVAL OF ENHANCED DENSITY,
SOLAR WIND SPEED, AND ENHANCED MAGNETIC FIELD STRENGTH, FOLLOWED BY
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF INCREASING SOLAR WIND SPEED AND DECREASING
DENSITY. THERE WAS NO OBVIOUS SOLAR SOURCE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE IN
THE AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CURRENT
DISTURBANCE PERSISTS. REGIONS NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT MAY EXPERIENCE
INTERVALS OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DUE TO SUBSTORM ACTIVITY,
ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER LATITUDES. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RESUME ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS OF THE FORECAST
INTERVAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 JAN-29 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 JAN 074
PREDICTED   27 JAN-29 JAN  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        26 JAN 077
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JAN  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JAN  012/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JAN-29 JAN  010/008-007/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 JAN-29 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/20/10
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01