:Product: 19970127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jan 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 027 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 JAN 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A B1 X-RAY EVENT AT 1425Z
WAS THE ONLY FLARE ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY. REGION 8014 (S18E24)
CONTINUES TO BE A VERY SMALL, STABLE SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND MEASUREMENTS
SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS IS DUE TO A HIGH SPEED,
LOW DENSITY WIND STREAM, CONSISTENT WITH A CORONAL HOLE. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS EXCEEDED HIGH FLUX LEVELS AT 1725Z AND ARE
CONTINUING TO RISE SLOWLY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREDOMINANTLY QUIET
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 JAN-30 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 JAN 074
PREDICTED   28 JAN-30 JAN  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        27 JAN 077
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JAN  015/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JAN  011/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JAN-30 JAN  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 JAN-30 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01