:Product: 19970128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jan 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 028 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 JAN 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
MID-LATITUDES WERE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED AND HIGH
LATITUDES WERE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. A PERIOD OF ACTIVE TO
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM 03-06Z. SOLAR WIND DATA
SUGGESTS THE ACTIVITY WAS DUE TO A HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY WIND
STREAM. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS EXCEEDED HIGH FLUX LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS
BECOMING QUIET ON DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 JAN-31 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 JAN 073
PREDICTED   29 JAN-31 JAN  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        28 JAN 077
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JAN  018/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JAN  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JAN-31 JAN  015/012-010/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 JAN-31 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01