:Product: 19970129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jan 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 029 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 JAN 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  NEW REGION 8015 (N07E33),
A SIX SPOT 'BXO' GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY, AND IT PRODUCED THREE
B-CLASS EVENTS, THE LARGEST AN OPTICALLY CORRELATED B5.8  FLARE AT
1917Z. REGION 8014 (S15W04) HAS DECAYED INTO A SPOTLESS PLAGE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS, WITH CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY QUIET SINCE 29/0900Z. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS EXCEEDED VERY HIGH LEVELS FOR THE FIRST
TIME AT 29/1752Z, AND HAVE REMAINED IN THE VERY HIGH  RANGE SINCE
29/1905Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 JAN-01 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 JAN 075
PREDICTED   30 JAN-01 FEB  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        29 JAN 077
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 JAN  020/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JAN  007/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JAN-01 FEB  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 JAN-01 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01