:Product: 19970130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jan 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 030 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 JAN 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8015 (N03E20), THE
ONLY ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, REMAINS STABLE AS A FIVE
SPOT 'CSO' BETA GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS EXCEEDED
THE VERY HIGH FLUX THRESHOLD AT 30/1610Z, AND REMAINED AT THAT LEVEL
THROUGH THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 JAN-02 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 JAN 074
PREDICTED   31 JAN-02 FEB  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        30 JAN 077
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JAN  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JAN  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 JAN-02 FEB  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 31 JAN-02 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01