:Product: 19970202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 033 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  A CLASS C EVENT (AT 0625Z)
AND SEVERAL SUBFAINT FLARES HAVE OCCURRED FROM NEW REGION 8016
(S20E22).  TWO REGIONS HAVE SPOTS: REGION 8015 (N04W22) IS A 'CSO'
BETA GROUP WITH 10 SPOTS AND REGION 8016 IS A 'CRO' BETA GROUP WITH
11 SPOTS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT MID-LATITUDES AND QUIET TO
ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS HAVE BEEN
AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 FEB-05 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 FEB 078
PREDICTED   03 FEB-05 FEB  072/072/073
90 DAY MEAN        02 FEB 077
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 FEB  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 FEB  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 FEB-05 FEB  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 FEB-05 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01