:Product: 19970203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 034 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  REGION 8015 (N05W35) IS A
'DSO' BETA WITH 10 SPOTS AND 8016 (S21E09) IS A 'DSI' BETA WITH NINE
SPOTS.  REGION 8015 HAD SEVERAL SUBFAINT FLARES EARLIER.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDLATITUDES AND
QUIET TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS
HAVE BEEN AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 FEB-06 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 FEB 080
PREDICTED   04 FEB-06 FEB  073/073/073
90 DAY MEAN        03 FEB 077
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 FEB  010/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 FEB  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 FEB-06 FEB  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 FEB-06 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01