:Product: 19970205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 036 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8015 (N05W64) IS A
'DAO' BETA WITH SIX SPOTS AND REGION 8016 (S20W18) IS A 'HRX' ALPHA.
REGION 8016 APPEARS TO BE A NEW CYCLE REGION (I.E. NEGATIVE LEADER
POLE AND A POSITIVE TRAILER). THERE HAVE BEEN NO FLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES
AND THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS HAVE BEEN AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 FEB-08 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 FEB 075
PREDICTED   06 FEB-08 FEB  078/077/075
90 DAY MEAN        05 FEB 077
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 FEB  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 FEB  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 FEB-08 FEB  005/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 FEB-08 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01