:Product: 19970207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 038 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT
FLARES OBSERVED. ALL SPOTTED REGIONS REMAINED STABLE AND QUIET.
H-ALPHA, YOHKOH X-RAY, AND SPACE-BASED CORONAGRAPH DATA INDICATE A
LARGE CME OCCURRED TODAY AT APPROXIMATELY 07/0230Z. THE CME SPANNED
THE SOLAR DISK FROM THE WEST LIMB NEAR N00W90, SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN POLAR CROWN FILAMENT CHANNEL, TO THE EAST LIMB NEAR
S40E90. THIS SUGGESTS A SPAN OF SOME 200 DEGREES. X-RAY DATA
INDICATE A SLIGHT LONG-DURATION ELEVATION IN SOLAR X-RAY OUTPUT
DURING THE EVENT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED
ACTIVITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED BY DAY FOUR IN RESPONSE TO THE OBSERVED
CME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 FEB-10 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 FEB 076
PREDICTED   08 FEB-10 FEB  076/076/076
90 DAY MEAN        07 FEB 078
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 FEB  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 FEB  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 FEB-10 FEB  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 FEB-10 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/05/05
MINOR STORM           05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/05/05
MINOR STORM           05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01