:Product: 19970208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 039 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT
FLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS. MAJOR STORMING OCCURRED BETWEEN 08/1200 AND 08/1500Z.
SPACE BASED SOLAR WIND DATA INCDATE A HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY STREAM
AT THAT TIME.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MID
LATITUDE ACTIVE LEVELS AND HIGH LATITUDE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON DAY THREE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE
TO THE LARGE CME OBSERVED EARLY 7 FEBRUARY. HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS
MAY SEE OCCASSIONAL PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING DURING THAT TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 FEB-11 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 FEB 075
PREDICTED   09 FEB-11 FEB  076/076/074
90 DAY MEAN        08 FEB 078
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 FEB  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 FEB  014/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 FEB-11 FEB  010/012-010/010-025/027
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 FEB-11 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/35
MINOR STORM           05/05/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/25
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/30
MINOR STORM           05/10/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/30