:Product: 19970209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 040 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8016 (S20W58), NOW
A SINGLE AXX SPOT, IS THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, THEN
QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE LEVELS, WITH
PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING POSSIBLE, ON DAYS TWO AND THREE IN
RESPONSE TO THE LARGE CME EVENT OBSERVED ON 07 FEBRUARY. HIGH
LATITUDES SHOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING DURING
THAT PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 FEB-12 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 FEB 073
PREDICTED   10 FEB-12 FEB  074/074/072
90 DAY MEAN        09 FEB 078
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 FEB  020/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 FEB  015/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 FEB-12 FEB  010/010-025/027-020/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 FEB-12 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/35/30
MINOR STORM           05/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/15/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/40/40
MINOR STORM           10/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/15/15