:Product: 19970211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 042 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. THE DISK WAS
SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. PERIODS
OF ISOLATED MINOR STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED AT SOME HIGH LATITUDE
SITES. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT
HIGH TO ALMOST VERY HIGH LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 12 FEB AS THIS MAGNETIC CLOULD RELATED
DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
13-14 FEB.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 FEB-14 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 FEB 071
PREDICTED   12 FEB-14 FEB  071/071/071
90 DAY MEAN        11 FEB 078
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 FEB  021/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 FEB  017/019
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 FEB-14 FEB  010/010-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 FEB-14 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/15/10
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01