:Product: 19970212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 043 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. THE DISK CONTINUED
SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT VERY
LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD AND QUIET FOR THE LATTER HALF. SOLAR WIND DATA
SHOW A BENIGN FLOW IN THE EARTH'S VICINITY NOW THAT THE MAGNETIC
CLOUD/CME PASSED BY THE EARTH. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 FEB-15 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 FEB 071
PREDICTED   13 FEB-15 FEB  071/071/071
90 DAY MEAN        12 FEB 078
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 FEB  017/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 FEB  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 FEB-15 FEB  005/005-005/005-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 FEB-15 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01