:Product: 19970213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 044 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  THE DISK REMAINED SPOTLESS AND SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED
VERY LOW. A SMALL FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR N08E29 EXHIBITED
NON-ERUPTIVE DISSOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 FEB-16 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 FEB 071
PREDICTED   14 FEB-16 FEB  071/071/071
90 DAY MEAN        13 FEB 078
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 FEB  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 FEB  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 FEB-16 FEB  005/005-005/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 FEB-16 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01