:Product: 19970214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 045 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS EXCEEDED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
UNSETTLED FOR THE THIRD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 FEB-17 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 FEB 071
PREDICTED   15 FEB-17 FEB  071/071/071
90 DAY MEAN        14 FEB 078
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 FEB  007/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 FEB  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 FEB-17 FEB  005/007-005/005-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 FEB-17 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/10
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/15
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/03