:Product: 19970215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 046 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE SOLAR DISK CONTINUES
TO BE SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. THERE WERE SOME
ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT SOME HIGH LATITUDE
SITES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS EXCEED HIGH FLUX LEVELS FOR
PART OF THE DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN INCREASE TO MOSTLY
UNSETTLED IS EXPECTED ON THE SECOND DAY. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD RESUME ON THE THIRD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 FEB-18 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 FEB 072
PREDICTED   16 FEB-18 FEB  072/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        15 FEB 078
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 FEB  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 FEB  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 FEB-18 FEB  005/005-010/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 FEB-18 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/15/05
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/15/05
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01