:Product: 19970216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 047 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ACTIVE LEVELS OCCURRED AT SOME MID-LATITUDE SITES FROM 12-13Z,
AND HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED SOME ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVEL
ACTIVITY FROM 0600-1400Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS BRIEFLY
CROSSED THE THRESHOLD FOR HIGH FLUX LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT DAY. QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD RESUME ON THE SECOND DAY, AND ANOTHER INTERVAL OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON THE THIRD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 FEB-19 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 FEB 072
PREDICTED   17 FEB-19 FEB  072/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        16 FEB 077
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 FEB  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 FEB  010/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 FEB-19 FEB  010/010-005/005-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 FEB-19 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/05/20
MINOR STORM           10/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/05/25
MINOR STORM           20/05/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/05