:Product: 19970217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 048 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A VERY LOW LEVEL.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A VERY
LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED
LEVELS. UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED BETWEEN
17/0600-1200Z. THE ONLY POSSIBLE SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WAS A
VERY SLOW DISSOLUTION OF A FILAMENT NEAR N08E29 ON 13 FEB. AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE, THE FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 FEB-20 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 FEB 073
PREDICTED   18 FEB-20 FEB  073/073/075
90 DAY MEAN        17 FEB 077
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 FEB  010/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 FEB  014/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 FEB-20 FEB  010/010-010/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 FEB-20 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/05
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01