:Product: 19970218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 049 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW REGION 8018 (N08W60),
A TWO SPOT 'BXO' ALPHA GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONDITIONS DUE TO A FAVORABLY
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.  ACTIVITY ON DAY THREE IS EXPECTED TO
REVERT BACK TO MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 FEB-21 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 FEB 073
PREDICTED   19 FEB-21 FEB  073/073/073
90 DAY MEAN        18 FEB 077
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 FEB  014/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 FEB  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 FEB-21 FEB  010/015-010/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 FEB-21 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/15
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/15
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01