:Product: 19970219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 050 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
REGION 8018 (N04W76), THE ONLY ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK,
HAS DECAYED INTO AN 'AXX' SPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND MOSTLY
UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS
ON DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 FEB-22 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 FEB 072
PREDICTED   20 FEB-22 FEB  073/073/073
90 DAY MEAN        19 FEB 077
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 FEB  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 FEB  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 FEB-22 FEB  005/005-010/005-015/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 FEB-22 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01