:Product: 19970220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 051 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW AS FOUR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE FIRST AN OPTICALLY CORRELATED
C3 FLARE AT 19/2223Z. THE LARGEST EVENT, A C4 FLARE, OCCURRED AT
20/1144Z.  ALL EVENTS EMENATED FROM REGION 8018 (N05W89) WHILE IT
WAS A SINGLE SPOT 'AXX' GROUP. THE REGION HAS SINCE DECAYED INTO A
SPOTLESS PLAGE AS IT ROTATES OFF THE WEST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.  AN 18-DEGREE LONG FILAMENT AT LOCATION S44W09 DISAPPEARED
FROM THE DISK DURING THE INTERVAL 20/0100-0406Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY
THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 FEB-23 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 FEB 073
PREDICTED   21 FEB-23 FEB  073/073/073
90 DAY MEAN        20 FEB 077
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 FEB  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 FEB  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 FEB-23 FEB  005/005-010/010-015/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 FEB-23 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01