:Product: 19970221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 052 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A SINGLE B-CLASS X-RAY
EVENT OCCURRED AT 21/1019Z. THE VISIBLE DISK IS CURRENTLY SPOTLESS
AND ESSENTIALLY FEATURELESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS. MIDDLE LATITUDES EXPERIENCED A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS DURING THE INTERVAL 21/0900-1200Z, WHILE HIGH LATITUDES
RECORDED ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DURING THE INTERVAL
21/0900-1500Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAYS TWO AND
THREE DUE TO RECURRENT ACTIVITY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 FEB-24 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 FEB 073
PREDICTED   22 FEB-24 FEB  073/073/073
90 DAY MEAN        21 FEB 077
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 FEB  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 FEB  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 FEB-24 FEB  010/010-015/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 FEB-24 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/30/35
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/30/35
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05