:Product: 19970222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 053 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  THE VISIBLE DISK IS
CURRENTLY SPOTLESS AND FEATURELESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH AN INCREASE TO ACTIVE LEVELS
ON DAYS 2 AND 3 DUE TO RECURRENT ACTIVITY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 FEB-25 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 FEB 074
PREDICTED   23 FEB-25 FEB  073/073/073
90 DAY MEAN        22 FEB 077
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 FEB  011/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 FEB  008/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 FEB-25 FEB  010/010-015/015-015/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 FEB-25 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/30
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05