:Product: 19970228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 059 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 FEB 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. THE DISK REMAINED
SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES REACHED HIGH LEVELS NEAR 28/1356Z AND REACHED VERY
HIGH LEVELS NEAR 28/2000Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE TOMORROW AND QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON
THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 MAR-03 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 FEB 073
PREDICTED   01 MAR-03 MAR  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        28 FEB 075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 FEB  022/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 FEB  027/033
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 MAR-03 MAR  020/018-015/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 MAR-03 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/25/15
MINOR STORM           20/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/30/25
MINOR STORM           30/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/01