:Product: 19970305RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Mar 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 064 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 MAR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. HOWEVER, SEVERAL
SMALL B-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS OCCURRED. IT IS LIKELY THESE BURSTS WERE
FROM A REGION ABOUT TO ROTATE ONTO THE DISK NEAR N04. ACTIVE SURGING
AND BRIGHT KNOTS OF H-ALPHA EMISSION WERE OBSERVED OVER THIS AREA.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT VERY
LOW LEVELS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF C-CLASS EVENTS FROM THE REGION
BEYOND THE NORTHEAST LIMB. A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF FLARE POTENTIAL
CAN BE MADE ONCE THE SUNSPOT GROUP APPEARS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL NEAR 05/1630Z. AFTER THAT TIME,
GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED WITH ISOLATED
MINOR STORMING OBSERVED AT A FEW HIGH LATITUDE SITES. RECENT SOLAR
WIND DATA SHOW INCREASING DENSITY AND VELOCITY. THE SOURCE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS UNKNOWN. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES WERE HIGH FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD BUT DROPPED TO MODERATE LEVELS AFTER 05/1930Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING 06 MAR.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 MAR-08 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 MAR 075
PREDICTED   06 MAR-08 MAR  077/079/080
90 DAY MEAN        05 MAR 075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 MAR  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 MAR  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 MAR-08 MAR  010/010-005/005-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 MAR-08 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/15
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01