:Product: 19970307RSGA.txt :Issued: 1997 Mar 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 066 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 MAR 1997 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A SMALL TRAILER SPOT IN REGION 8020 (N09E62) BECAME VISIBLE TODAY, MAKING THE GROUP A SIMPLE CAO CLASS GROUP. THE REGION WAS VERY QUIET AND STABLE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. NO FLARES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD, AND YESTERDAY'S TYPE III RADIO SWEEP ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED TODAY. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN INTERVAL OF SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ACTIVITY OCCURRED FROM 0900Z-1600Z: MID-LATITUDES WERE UNSETTLED AND HIGH LATITUDE SITES WERE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS LATE ON THE THIRD DAY BECAUSE A CORONAL HOLE WILL BE ROTATING INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION AT THAT TIME. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 MAR-10 MAR CLASS M 01/01/01 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 07 MAR 074 PREDICTED 08 MAR-10 MAR 075/075/075 90 DAY MEAN 07 MAR 075 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 MAR 010/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 MAR 007/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 MAR-10 MAR 010/008-010/010-012/010 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 MAR-10 MAR A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 05/15/20 MINOR STORM 01/01/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 10/15/25 MINOR STORM 05/05/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/05