:Product: 19970308RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Mar 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 067 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 MAR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8020 (N06E48) WAS
VERY QUIET AND STABLE. A NEW REGION 8021 (S30E42) EMERGED ON THE
DISK TODAY AS A SIMPLE AXX TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP. A REMARKABLE FEATURE
WAS VISIBLE ON THE SOHO EUV HEII IMAGE AT 1014Z TODAY. THE FEATURE
WAS VISIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST LIMB, WAS ABOUT 0.2 SOLAR RADII
IN LENGTH, AND HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A PROMINENCE ERUPTION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT MID-LATITUDES AND WAS QUIET TO
UNSETTLED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN
INCREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ON THE THIRD DAY
IN RESPONSE TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 MAR-11 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 MAR 075
PREDICTED   09 MAR-11 MAR  075/075/075
90 DAY MEAN        08 MAR 075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 MAR  009/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 MAR  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 MAR-11 MAR  010/010-010/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 MAR-11 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           05/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/30
MINOR STORM           05/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05