:Product: 19970309RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Mar 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 068 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 MAR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. TODAY'S ONLY EVENT OF NOTE
WAS A LONG DURATION X-RAY EVENT OBSERVED BY THE GOES SATELLITES: A
GRADUAL RISE IN X-RAYS BEGAN AT 0340Z, REACHED A MAXIMUM OF B3 AT
0633Z AND DECLINED TO HALF-POWER BY 0945Z. THERE WERE NO IMAGE
OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE TO PINPOINT THE SOURCE OF THIS EVENT. REGION
8020 (N06E32) WAS A STABLE CAO BIPOLAR REGION AND REGION 8021
(S29E30) WAS A SIMPLE, STABLE BXO GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TOMORROW, BECOMING UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY
ACTIVE ON THE SECOND DAY, AND RETURNING TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED BY THE
THIRD DAY. THE INCREASE IS EXPECTED BECAUSE A SMALL CORONAL HOLE
WILL BE ROTATING INTO FAVORABLE POSITION.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 MAR-12 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 MAR 075
PREDICTED   10 MAR-12 MAR  075/075/075
90 DAY MEAN        09 MAR 075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 MAR  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 MAR  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 MAR-12 MAR  010/010-015/015-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 MAR-12 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/35/25
MINOR STORM           05/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/35/25
MINOR STORM           05/20/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01