:Product: 19970310RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Mar 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 069 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 MAR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. REGION
8020 (N07E23) REMAINS STABLE AS A SEVEN SPOT 'CAO' BETA GROUP, WHILE
REGION 8021 (S28E18) HAS DECAYED INTO A SPOTLESS PLAGE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS, DUE TO A FAVORABLY
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO
UNSETTLED ON DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 MAR-13 MAR
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 MAR 075
PREDICTED   11 MAR-13 MAR  075/075/075
90 DAY MEAN        10 MAR 075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAR  002/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAR  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAR-13 MAR  015/015-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 MAR-13 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01