:Product: 19970312RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Mar 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 071 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 MAR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
REGION 8020 (N07W05), CURRENTLY AN ELEVEN SPOT 'BXO' BETA GROUP,
REMAINS THE ONLY ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ACTIVE CONDITIONS EXISTED DURING THE INTERVAL 12/0300-1200Z, WITH
ACTIVITY DECREASING TO UNSETTLED DURING THE INTERVAL 12/1200-1800,
AND THEN CLOSING OUT THE REPORTING PERIOD AT QUIET LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY
THREE DUE TO RECURRENT ACTIVITY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 MAR-15 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 MAR 074
PREDICTED   13 MAR-15 MAR  075/075/075
90 DAY MEAN        12 MAR 075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 MAR  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAR  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAR-15 MAR  005/005-005/005-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 MAR-15 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05