:Product: 19970313RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 072 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 MAR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
REGION 8020 (N08W19), CURRENTLY AN EIGHT SPOT 'CRO' GROUP, REMAINS
THE ONLY ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK. A 6-DEGREE LONG FAINT
DENSITY FILAMENT LOCATED TO THE EAST OF REGION 8020 DISAPPEARED
BETWEEN 12 AND 13 MARCH.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAYS TWO AND
THREE DUE TO RECURRENT ACTIVITY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 MAR-16 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 MAR 074
PREDICTED   14 MAR-16 MAR  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        13 MAR 075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 MAR  016/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 MAR  010/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 MAR-16 MAR  005/005-010/010-010/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 MAR-16 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01