:Product: 19970316RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 075 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 MAR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. REGION 8021 (S33W54)
IS AN 'AXX' GROUP WITH ONE SPOT AND 8022 (S05W47) IS A 'BXO' GROUP
WITH FIVE SPOTS. REGION 8021 HAS HAD ONE SUBFAINT OPTICAL FLARE AND
ONE 'B-CLASS' XRAY FLARE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 MAR-19 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 MAR 076
PREDICTED   17 MAR-19 MAR  075/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        16 MAR 075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAR  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAR  008/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAR-19 MAR  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 MAR-19 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/05/05
MINOR STORM           05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01