:Product: 19970317RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 076 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 MAR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  REGION 8022 (S05W47) IS A
'BXO' GROUP WITH 5 SPOTS. REGION 8021 (S33W54) HAS HAD ONE 'B' CLASS
XRAY FLARE AND PRESENTLY IS SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 MAR-20 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 MAR 074
PREDICTED   18 MAR-20 MAR  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        17 MAR 075
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAR  009/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAR  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAR-20 MAR  005/005-005/005-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 MAR-20 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01