:Product: 19970324RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Mar 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 083 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 MAR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  THE DISK REMAINED SPOTLESS AND SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED
AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED OFF
THE WEST LIMB DURING THE PERIOD (NO TIME AVAILABLE).  DUE TO THE
LACK OF OBVIOUS SOURCES ON THE VISIBLE DISK, IT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENT ORIGINATED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SUN.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A
VERY LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST PART OF 25 MAR. A RECURRENT HIGH
SPEED STREAM SHOULD BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE FIELD LATE ON 25 MAR AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH 27 MAR. GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THAT INTERVAL. ISOLATED MINOR
STORMING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS DISTURBANCE, ESPECIALLY AT HIGH
LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 MAR-27 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 MAR 071
PREDICTED   25 MAR-27 MAR  071/071/071
90 DAY MEAN        24 MAR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 MAR  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 MAR  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 MAR-27 MAR  008/008-015/015-020/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 MAR-27 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/40
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/10/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/40
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/10