:Product: 19970326RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Mar 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 085 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 MAR 1997
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE SOLAR DISK CONTINUES
TO BE SPOTLESS. A SMALL (5 DEGREE) FILAMENT NEAR N52W16 DISAPPEARED
BETWEEN 1310-1317UT TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. THERE
WERE SOME  BRIEF MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVEL CONDITIONS AT HIGH
LATITUDES. SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATED HIGH SPEED (500-550
KM/S) AND LOW DENSITY (3-7 P/CC) PLASMA, CONSISTENT WITH A CORONAL
HOLE WIND STREAM. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX ATTAINED
MODERATE LEVELS AND WAS CLIMBING AT FORECAST ISSUE TIME.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND AND
THIRD DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 MAR-29 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 MAR 070
PREDICTED   27 MAR-29 MAR  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        26 MAR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 MAR  013/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 MAR  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 MAR-29 MAR  020/018-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 MAR-29 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/15/20
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01