:Product: 19970327RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Mar 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 086 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 MAR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT
1035Z. ALTHOUGH THERE WERE NO TIME-COINCIDENT OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE
TO PINPOINT THE SOURCE, A LIKELY CANDIDATE IS NEW REGION 8026
(S26E73). THIS REGION ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A SMALL BUT ACTIVE
BXO BETA SUNSPOT GROUP, AND WAS OBSERVED TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
SUBFLARE ACTIVITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR AN ADDITIONAL C-CLASS
EVENT FROM REGION 8026 OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE FROM 26/2100 THROUGH
27/0100Z, BUT BECAME REMARKABLY QUIET AFTER 27/0100Z. QUIET
CONDITIONS PREVAILED FROM 27/0100-27/2100Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME VERY BRIEF UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVEL CONDITIONS AT A FEW HIGH
LATITUDE SITES BETWEEN 0700-1200Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS (GREATER THAN 1000 PFU) DURING THE
REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 MAR-30 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 MAR 072
PREDICTED   28 MAR-30 MAR  073/074/075
90 DAY MEAN        27 MAR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 MAR  014/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 MAR  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 MAR-30 MAR  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 MAR-30 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01