:Product: 19970328RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Mar 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 087 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 MAR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S SOLE C-CLASS EVENT WAS
CLASS C1 AT 0120Z. THERE WERE NO OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE TO PINPOINT
THE SOURCE OF THE EVENT. REGION 8026 (S24E59) IS THE ONLY SPOTTED
REGION ON THE DISK AND HAS SHOWN SLOW GROWTH OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE GROUP HAS NEW CYCLE POLARITY, WITH MAGNETICALLY NEGATIVE LEADERS
AND POSITIVE TRAILERS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL,
ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 8026.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED FROM THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD THROUGH ABOUT 28/1400Z, WHEN AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY
BEGAN. SINCE 1400Z, ACTIVITY RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS WITH SOME ISOLATED MAJOR STORM PERIODS AT A FEW HIGH
LATITUDE SITES. SOLAR WIND DATA WERE AVAILABLE BRIEFLY DURING THE
DISTURBANCE AND INDICATED ENHANCED DENSITIES (10-15 P/CC), NOMINAL
SPEEDS (400-430 KM/S), AND A SOUTHWARD DIRECTED INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD OF MODERATE STRENGTH (-5 TO -10 NT). THIS SIGNATURE
SUGGESTS THAT THE ACTIVITY WAS CAUSED BY A CORONAL TRANSIENT. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS
TODAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 MAR-31 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 MAR 073
PREDICTED   29 MAR-31 MAR  074/075/076
90 DAY MEAN        28 MAR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 MAR  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 MAR  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 MAR-31 MAR  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 MAR-31 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01