:Product: 19970329RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Mar 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 088 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 MAR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. OCCASIONAL LOW-LEVEL
B-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8026 (S23E46) CONTINUED TO GROW
SLOWLY DURING THE PERIOD AND HAS DEVELOPED PENUMBRA ON LEADER AND
TRAILER SPOTS. THE ACTIVITY IN THE REGION HAS SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN OCCASIONAL
C-CLASS EVENT OUT OF REGION 8026. THE CHANCES FOR M-CLASS LEVEL
ACTIVITY FROM THIS GROUP ARE SLIGHT, BUT ARE NOW CONSIDERED TO BE
NON-NEGLIGIBLE, GIVEN THE CONTINUED INCREASE OF PHOTOSPHERIC
MAGNETIC FIELD INTENSITY AND THE CONTINUED TREND OF FLUX EMERGENCE
FROM THE REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH SOME
INTERVALS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUXES WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDE SITES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 MAR-01 APR
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 MAR 075
PREDICTED   30 MAR-01 APR  076/077/078
90 DAY MEAN        29 MAR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 MAR  012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 MAR  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 MAR-01 APR  010/015-010/012-012/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 MAR-01 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05