:Product: 19970330RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Mar 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 089 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 MAR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. REGION
8026 (S25E32), THE LONE ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, CONTINUES
TO SHOW SLOW GROWTH AND IS CURRENTLY A 19 SPOT 'ESO' GROUP. ALTHOUGH
ALL AIR FORCE OBSERVING STATIONS LIST THIS GROUP WITH A BETA
MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION, THE MT. WILSON SOLAR OBSERVATORY DEFINED IT
TODAY AS A MORE COMPLEX BETA-GAMMA-DELTA.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8026 HAS A FAIR CHANCE (30-40%) TO PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE (5-10%) FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED DURING
THE INTERVAL 29/2100-30/0600Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS WERE
AT HIGH LEVELS UNTIL CROSSING THE VERY HIGH THRESHOLD AT 30/1710Z,
WHERE THEY REMAINED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 MAR-02 APR
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 MAR 074
PREDICTED   31 MAR-02 APR  075/076/077
90 DAY MEAN        30 MAR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 MAR  014/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 MAR  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 MAR-02 APR  010/012-010/010-015/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 31 MAR-02 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05