:Product: 19970331RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Mar 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 090 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 31 MAR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. REGION
8026 (S24E20) HAS SLOWLY DECAYED SINCE YESTERDAY, AND IS CURRENTLY
AN 11 SPOT 'DAO' BETA GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW, WITH A 25% CHANCE FOR A C-CLASS EVENT DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS WERE HIGH UNTIL CROSSING THE
VERY HIGH THRESHOLD AT 31/1620Z, WHERE THEY REMAINDED FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 APR-03 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 MAR 075
PREDICTED   01 APR-03 APR  075/076/077
90 DAY MEAN        31 MAR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 MAR  009/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 MAR  005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 APR-03 APR  010/010-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 APR-03 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01