:Product: 19970402RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 092 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 APR 1997
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IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8026 (S24W02) PRODUCED
TWO C-CLASS FLARES AND NUMEROUS B-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE REPORTING
PERIOD. AS MANY AS 14 NEW SPOTS HAVE FORMED SINCE YESTERDAY, WITH
THE REGION NOW DISPLAYING TWO DISTINCT PLAGE FIELDS (NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST) IN A 29 SPOT 'EAI' BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. THE
NORTHEAST PLAGE FIELD CONTAINS AN ACTIVE ARCH FILAMENT SYSTEM AND
DARK SURGE ON THE DISK. NEW REGION 8027 (S30E77), THE RETURN OF OLD
REGION 8021, A 3 SPOT 'CAO' BETA GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS IT
ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW TO LOW, WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS
FROM REGION 8026 FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DURING THE
INTERVAL 02/0000-0600Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS WERE IN THE
MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ACTIVITY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY ACTIVE, WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING, ON DAYS TWO AND THREE IN
RESPONSE TO AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME DETECTED BY SOHO/EIT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE M1/1B FLARE FROM REGION 8026 AT 01/1400Z.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 APR-05 APR
CLASS M    25/20/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 APR 081
PREDICTED   03 APR-05 APR  081/082/083
90 DAY MEAN        02 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 APR  011/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 APR  010/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 APR-05 APR  010/010-025/020-025/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 APR-05 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/50/50
MINOR STORM           10/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/10/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/60/60
MINOR STORM           10/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/10/10